Challenge: Just in time

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Challenge: Just in time [∞]

Challenge: Oven Building with Penalty and Risk

Objective

Teams must order all parts for the oven to arrive as close to the target assembly date as possible. Penalties are based on the part's cost and its arrival timing. Delivery risks are determined by rolling a die.

Rules

  1. Order Date Calculation: Teams calculate order dates for each part to align with the target assembly date.
  2. Penalties:
    • Early Arrival: The penalty is (cost of the part) × (days early).
    • Late Arrival: The penalty is (cost of the part) × 2 × (days late).
  3. Delivery Risk:
    • Each part has a stated probability of on-time delivery.
    • For each part, roll a 6-sided die:
      • If the roll is within the probability range (e.g., 4 or lower for 70%), the part arrives on time.
      • If the roll exceeds the range, a delay occurs. Add 1–3 days (determined by a second die roll) to the lead time.
  4. Scoring:
    • Base Cost: Total of the parts selected.
    • Penalties: Add early/late penalties to the base cost.
    • Coordination Bonus: If all parts arrive on the same day, subtract a 10% bonus from the final cost.

Example Gameplay

Setup:

  • Target Assembly Date: Day 10
  • Part Data:
Part Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (days) Probability of On-Time Delivery
Frame C 250 3 95% (roll ≤ 5 = on time)
Chassis B 150 7 70% (roll ≤ 4 = on time)
Oven Box A 300 4 85% (roll ≤ 5 = on time)

Step-by-Step Example:

  1. Team Orders:
    • Frame (Supplier C): Order on Day 7 → Expected arrival Day 10.
    • Chassis (Supplier B): Order on Day 3 → Expected arrival Day 10.
    • Oven Box (Supplier A): Order on Day 6 → Expected arrival Day 10.
  2. Roll for Delivery:
    • Frame (95% on-time): Roll = 3 → On time.
    • Chassis (70% on-time): Roll = 5 → Late. Second roll = 2 → Delayed by 2 days. Arrives Day 12.
    • Oven Box (85% on-time): Roll = 2 → On time.
  3. Calculate Penalties:
    • Frame: On time. No penalty.
    • Chassis: 2 days late. Penalty = $150 × 2 × 2 = $600.
    • Oven Box: On time. No penalty.
  4. Scoring:
    • Base Cost: $250 (Frame) + $150 (Chassis) + $300 (Oven Box) = $700.
    • Penalties: $600 (Chassis).
    • Coordination Bonus: None (parts not coordinated).
    • Final Cost: $700 + $600 = $1,300.

Optional Variations

  • Advanced Probability: Use a 10-sided die or percentage-based RNG for finer control.
  • Surprise Events: Occasionally introduce random events (e.g., "supplier strike: +3 days to all lead times").

Tools for Gameplay

  • Printable scorecards for tracking orders, costs, and penalties.
  • Pre-made part and supplier tables for quick setup.
  • A die or digital dice roller for simulating probabilities and delays.

Part: Frame

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 200 6 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 250 3 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 180 8 80% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Chassis

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 150 5 85% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 170 4 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 140 8 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Oven Box

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 300 7 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 320 5 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 280 10 70% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Burner

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 100 3 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 120 5 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 90 7 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Valves

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 70 3 85% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 60 5 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 50 7 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Electronics

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 400 6 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 420 4 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 380 8 80% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Miscellaneous (Buttons and Knobs)

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 50 3 85% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 45 5 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 40 8 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Game Play Notes

  1. Dice Rolls:
    • Use a d6 to determine if a part arrives on time.
    • If the roll exceeds the probability range, roll again for delay duration (1–3 days).
  2. Ordering Strategy:
    • Teams must balance cost, lead time, and on-time probabilities.
    • Early arrival penalties encourage precise timing.
  3. Penalties:
    • Early: (Cost of the part) × (Days early).
    • Late: (Cost of the part) × 2 × (Days late).
  4. ----

Part: Frame

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 200 6 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 250 3 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 180 8 80% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Chassis

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 150 5 85% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 170 4 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 140 8 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Oven Box

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 300 7 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 320 5 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 280 10 70% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Burner

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 100 3 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 120 5 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 90 7 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Valves

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 70 3 85% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 60 5 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 50 7 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Electronics

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 400 6 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 420 4 95% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 380 8 80% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Part: Miscellaneous (Buttons and Knobs)

Supplier Cost ($) Lead Time (Days) On-Time Probability
A 50 3 85% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
B 45 5 90% (roll ≤ 5 on d6)
C 40 8 75% (roll ≤ 4 on d6)

Game Play Notes

  1. Dice Rolls:
    • Use a d6 to determine if a part arrives on time.
    • If the roll exceeds the probability range, roll again for delay duration (1–3 days).
  2. Ordering Strategy:
    • Teams must balance cost, lead time, and on-time probabilities.
    • Early arrival penalties encourage precise timing.
  3. Penalties:
    • Early: (Cost of the part) × (Days early).
    • Late: (Cost of the part) × 2 × (Days late).
  1. Here are A/B decision-making questions tailored to simulate the "Just in Time Manufacturing" game with penalties and risks:

General Strategy Questions

  1. (A) Order the part earlier to avoid delivery risk but risk an early penalty. (B) Order closer to the target assembly date to minimize penalties but increase the delivery risk.
  2. (A) Choose a supplier with a lower cost but longer lead time. (B) Choose a supplier with a higher cost but a shorter and more reliable lead time.
  3. (A) Spread orders to multiple suppliers to balance risks. (B) Consolidate orders with one supplier for simplicity and coordination bonuses.

Specific Part Questions

  1. For the Frame, Supplier A is cheaper but has a longer lead time. (A) Order from Supplier A for lower cost but manage timing carefully. (B) Order from Supplier B for reliability despite the higher cost.
  2. For the Chassis, Supplier C offers the lowest cost but a higher risk of delay. (A) Take the risk and save money with Supplier C. (B) Spend more for Supplier B's higher reliability.
  3. The Oven Box from Supplier B has a moderate cost and lead time, but Supplier A offers a better reliability percentage. (A) Choose Supplier B for a balanced option. (B) Pay extra for Supplier A’s reliability.

Risk and Penalty Management

  1. (A) Account for potential delivery delays by rolling the dice for each part, expecting penalties. (B) Hedge against delays by choosing suppliers with the best on-time probability, even at a higher cost.
  2. You’re considering adding buffer days to the order timing to account for delivery delays. (A) Build in a 1–2 day buffer for critical parts with tight probabilities. (B) Order exactly for the target date, trusting the dice roll.
  3. Your Electronics supplier (Supplier A) is reliable but expensive, while Supplier C is cheaper with more risk. (A) Spend extra for peace of mind with Supplier A. (B) Take the risk and allocate savings to other parts.

Coordination Bonus Trade-offs

  1. You have all parts except the Burner, which risks arriving late. (A) Order the Burner earlier, risking an early penalty but ensuring coordination. (B) Stick to the target date, risking the loss of a coordination bonus if the Burner arrives late.
  2. To achieve the coordination bonus, you must choose a longer lead-time supplier for some parts. (A) Sacrifice cost efficiency for the coordination bonus. (B) Ignore the coordination bonus and optimize for individual parts' cost and timing.

Random Event Decisions

  1. A surprise event increases lead times for Supplier B across all parts by 3 days. (A) Stick with Supplier B despite the increased risk of penalties. (B) Switch to a higher-cost supplier with unaffected lead times.
  2. A last-minute strike affects deliveries for Supplier C. (A) Accept delays and penalties with Supplier C. (B) Recalculate and reorder from Supplier A or B to minimize penalties.
These questions encourage teams to think critically about cost, risk, timing, and coordination bonuses. You can use these to guide gameplay or to evaluate decision-making strategies during the simulation.
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